Touraj Ashrafian and his graduate student Gökçe Tomrukçu, from the Faculty of Architecture and Design, investigated the potential impact of climate change on residential buildings and explored strategies for improving existing structures to support long-term adaptation. This research used climate data scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Various building envelope and Heating, Ventilating, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system scenarios were created, simulated, and compared to identify the most effective solutions.

The findings revealed that projected increases in outdoor air temperature due to climate change would have a significant impact on buildings’ cooling and heating energy needs. While the heating energy consumption for a typical singlefamily house was estimated at 170.85 kWh/m² in 2020, it was expected to decrease to 115.01 kWh/m² by 2080. Conversely, cooling energy requirements were projected to double, rising from 53.14 kWh/m² in 2020 to 106.95 kWh/m² in 2080. 

This study highlighted the need for strategies to increase the climate resilience of buildings, especially single-family homes, which constitute a substantial portion of the building stock. By analyzing energy performance improvement scenarios, the research aimed to identify practical adaptation measures to mitigate the impact of climate change on buildings, contributing valuable insights to SDG 13’s objective of enhancing climate resilience in human settlements.